Penafiel vs Sporting CP B
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-23 · 15:00 CET
LDWWW
WWLWWThe score model made a Sporting CP B win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Penafiel 0.97 – 1.09 Sporting CP B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel win | 32.3% | 37.8% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 29.4% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Sporting CP B win | 38.5% | 32.8% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.1% | 43.3% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.5% | 23.8% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.9% | 49.9% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 30.0% | -0.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Penafiel 43.4 / Sporting CP B 24.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.