Lusitania FC vs Torreense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-22 · 19:00 CET
WWDWW
LDDLWThe score model made a Torreense win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lusitania FC 1.25 – 1.43 Torreense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitania FC win | 33.4% | 28.0% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 29.1% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Torreense win | 41.6% | 42.9% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 45.6% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 25.7% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 50.9% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 31.3% | -2.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lusitania FC 24.2 / Torreense 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.