Leixoes vs Leiria
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-22 · 12:00 CET
LWLWW
LLWWWThe score model made a Leiria win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:4 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leixoes 1.34 – 1.50 Leiria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 34.4% | 39.7% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 28.5% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Leiria win | 41.5% | 31.8% | +9.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 49.5% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.8% | 29.1% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 54.7% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 33.9% | +2.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leixoes 43.5 / Leiria 41.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.