Benfica B vs Portimonense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-21 · 19:00 CET
WWDLL
WWDLLThe score model made a Benfica B win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Benfica B 1.64 – 1.13 Portimonense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica B win | 49.8% | 47.7% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 27.8% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Portimonense win | 26.7% | 24.5% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 48.9% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 28.4% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 52.4% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 33.1% | -3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Benfica B 43.7 / Portimonense 35.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.