Portimonense vs Vizela
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-16 · 12:00 CET
WWDLL
WLDWWThe score model made a Vizela win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Portimonense 1.08 – 1.34 Vizela.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 30.6% | 28.1% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 28.6% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Vizela win | 43.0% | 43.4% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 47.2% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.5% | 27.2% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 52.4% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 32.6% | -11.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Portimonense 34.8 / Vizela 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.