FC Porto B vs SC Farense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-16 · 19:00 CET
LLWLL
DWWDLThe score model made an FC Porto B win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Porto B 1.06 – 1.00 SC Farense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto B win | 36.9% | 28.5% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 29.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| SC Farense win | 33.8% | 42.0% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.1% | 42.8% | -8.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.5% | 23.4% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 41.0% | 49.1% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.6% | 30.1% | -7.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Porto B 43.2 / SC Farense 27.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.