Lusitania FC vs FC Porto B
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-10 · 19:00 CET
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LLWLLThe score model made an FC Porto B win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lusitania FC 1.42 – 1.44 FC Porto B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitania FC win | 37.4% | 38.7% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 28.9% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| FC Porto B win | 38.1% | 32.4% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 47.7% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 27.5% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 53.2% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 32.5% | +0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lusitania FC 22.8 / FC Porto B 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.