Vizela vs Leiria
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-09 · 15:00 CET
WLDWW
LLWWWThe score model made a Vizela win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vizela 1.37 – 1.25 Leiria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 39.8% | 38.6% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 28.5% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Leiria win | 34.4% | 32.9% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 48.9% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 28.6% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 54.6% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.5% | 33.7% | -8.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vizela 34.3 / Leiria 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.