SC Farense vs Torreense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-09 · 12:00 CET
DWWDL
LDDLWThe score model made a Torreense win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SC Farense 0.91 – 1.02 Torreense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Farense win | 31.5% | 27.9% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.1% | 30.0% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Torreense win | 37.3% | 42.1% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.3% | 42.0% | -11.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.9% | 22.9% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.8% | 48.8% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.5% | 29.2% | -8.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SC Farense 27.4 / Torreense 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.