Feirense vs Felgueiras
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-09 · 16:30 CET
DLLLL
DDDWLThe score model made a Feirense win the most likely outcome at 35%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Feirense 1.01 – 0.99 Felgueiras.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 35.2% | 34.5% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.5% | 31.5% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Felgueiras win | 34.3% | 34.0% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.2% | 37.5% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.2% | 19.3% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.7% | 45.4% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.6% | 26.2% | -3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Feirense 42.8 / Felgueiras 34.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.