Penafiel vs Portimonense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-08 · 15:00 CET
LDWWW
WWDLLThe score model made a Penafiel win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Penafiel 1.43 – 1.09 Portimonense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel win | 44.9% | 48.6% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.0% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Portimonense win | 28.9% | 24.4% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 48.1% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 28.0% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 51.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 33.7% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Penafiel 42.8 / Portimonense 34.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.