Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-11-07 · 14:45 CET
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LWDWDThe score model makes a Piast Gliwice win the most likely outcome at 37%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 66.0% vs 60.6% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slask Wroclaw 1.47 – 1.49 Piast Gliwice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw win | 36.1% | 38.1% | -2.0% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.0% | +1.1% |
| Piast Gliwice win | 36.8% | 36.0% | +0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 57.1% | -0.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 36.6% | -2.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | 60.7% | +0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 39.4% | -5.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Slask Wroclaw 26.7 / Piast Gliwice 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.