Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-11-07 · 12:15 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes a Korona Kielce win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.9% vs 67.2% implied (+3.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Korona Kielce 1.77 – 0.95 Radomiak Radom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korona Kielce win | 55.4% | 53.3% | +2.0% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 24.6% | +1.2% |
| Radomiak Radom win | 18.8% | 22.0% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 53.8% | -2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 32.8% | -3.7% |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 54.8% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 37.2% | +1.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Korona Kielce 45.8 / Radomiak Radom 45.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.