Wisla vs Cracovia
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-11-06 · 20:30 CET
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LWDLLThe score model makes a Wisla win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Wisla win — 59.8% vs 49.3% implied (+10.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wisla 2.05 – 1.03 Cracovia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisla win | 59.8% | 49.3% | +10.5% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.2% | -2.1% |
| Cracovia win | 17.1% | 25.4% | -8.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 55.2% | +4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 34.9% | +2.3% |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 57.4% | -0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 37.8% | +2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Wisla 10.8 / Cracovia 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Wisla vs Cracovia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.