Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-11-06 · 18:00 CET
DWWDW
WWLWLThe score model makes a Motor Lublin win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Motor Lublin win — 53.4% vs 43.7% implied (+9.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.79 – 1.05 Wisla Plock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin win | 53.4% | 43.7% | +9.7% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.7% | +0.1% |
| Wisla Plock win | 20.8% | 30.6% | -9.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 55.4% | -1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 36.2% | -4.4% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 58.0% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 38.4% | -3.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Motor Lublin 40.6 / Wisla Plock 30.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.