Zaglebie vs Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-09-20 · 14:45 CET
WLLWD
WWLWLThe score model made a Zaglebie win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zaglebie 1.30 – 0.76 Wisla Plock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie win | 47.8% | 38.8% | +9.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.9% | 28.9% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Wisla Plock win | 20.3% | 32.3% | -12.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.2% | 46.4% | -12.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.6% | 26.4% | -10.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.5% | 52.5% | -12.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.7% | 32.3% | -10.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zaglebie 45.8 / Wisla Plock 29.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Zaglebie vs Wisla Plock in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.