Jagiellonia vs Legia
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-09-20 · 17:30 CET
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DWWDLThe score model made a Jagiellonia win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.56 – 1.20 Legia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia win | 44.1% | 34.9% | +9.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 27.3% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Legia win | 27.9% | 37.9% | -10.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 54.6% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 33.3% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 58.6% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.2% | 36.5% | +8.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jagiellonia 45 / Legia 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jagiellonia vs Legia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.