Piast Gliwice vs Legia
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-22 · 17:30 CET
LLWLL
WWWDWThe score model makes an Legia win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.5% vs 68.6% implied (+7.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.17 – 1.29 Legia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice win | 32.4% | 27.6% | +4.7% |
| Draw | 29.4% | 27.4% | +2.0% |
| Legia win | 38.2% | 45.0% | -6.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 51.9% | -7.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 31.4% | -7.9% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 55.9% | -4.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 35.4% | -6.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Piast Gliwice 45 / Legia 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.