Cracovia vs Rakow
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-16 · 17:30 CET
DWWLL
LLLLLThe score model made a Rakow win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cracovia 1.11 – 1.24 Rakow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia win | 31.8% | 37.9% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.4% | 29.5% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Rakow win | 37.8% | 32.6% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 44.2% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 24.5% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 50.9% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 30.4% | -6.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cracovia 44 / Rakow 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.