Widzew Lodz vs Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-15 · 20:15 CET
WLDLD
DWDWDThe score model made a Widzew Lodz win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Widzew Lodz 1.22 – 0.90 Korona Kielce.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Widzew Lodz win | 42.3% | 47.1% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.7% | 28.7% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Korona Kielce win | 26.0% | 24.1% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.6% | 43.9% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.6% | 24.0% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 48.8% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.0% | 30.4% | -6.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Widzew Lodz 44 / Korona Kielce 43.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.