Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-09 · 14:45 CET
DLDDL
DWWLLThe score model made a Slask Wroclaw win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slask Wroclaw 1.44 – 1.09 Cracovia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw win | 44.0% | 38.2% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 28.8% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Cracovia win | 27.5% | 32.9% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 46.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 26.6% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 52.5% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 32.1% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slask Wroclaw 21.4 / Cracovia 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.