Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-09 · 17:30 CET
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LLDWWThe score model made a Lech Poznan win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lech Poznan 1.86 – 0.91 Piast Gliwice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan win | 58.8% | 60.0% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 22.0% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Piast Gliwice win | 17.1% | 18.0% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 59.7% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 39.0% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 56.9% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.7% | 41.3% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lech Poznan 43.9 / Piast Gliwice 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.