Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-08 · 14:45 CET
LLDWD
WWLWWThe score model made a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.36 – 1.37 Gornik Zabrze.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radomiak Radom win | 35.9% | 34.0% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 27.6% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Gornik Zabrze win | 36.5% | 38.4% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 53.7% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 33.1% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 58.4% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 36.8% | -5.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Radomiak Radom 43.8 / Gornik Zabrze 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.