Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-08 · 17:30 CET
WWDDD
LWDLLThe score model made a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pogon Szczecin 2.05 – 1.13 Motor Lublin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin win | 57.9% | 45.7% | +12.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 26.4% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Motor Lublin win | 19.5% | 27.9% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | 57.4% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.2% | 36.7% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 60.7% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.2% | 39.4% | +5.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pogon Szczecin 43.7 / Motor Lublin 35.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.