Korona Kielce vs Legia
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-08 · 20:15 CET
DWDWD
DWDDWThe score model made a Legia win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Korona Kielce 1.10 – 1.14 Legia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korona Kielce win | 33.3% | 32.8% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.0% | 29.4% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Legia win | 35.7% | 37.9% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.8% | 46.0% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.9% | 26.2% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | 52.4% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 31.8% | -2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Korona Kielce 42.7 / Legia 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.