Slask Wroclaw vs Rakow
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-02 · 17:30 CET
DLDDL
LLLLLThe score model made a Rakow win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slask Wroclaw 1.13 – 1.33 Rakow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw win | 30.4% | 33.0% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 28.6% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Rakow win | 40.4% | 38.4% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 47.9% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 27.6% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 53.4% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 32.7% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slask Wroclaw 20.7 / Rakow 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.