Legia vs Zaglebie
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-02 · 14:45 CET
DWDDW
LWDDDThe score model made a Legia win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Legia 1.47 – 0.86 Zaglebie.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legia win | 50.5% | 58.6% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.6% | 24.0% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Zaglebie win | 20.9% | 17.4% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% | 49.7% | -8.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | 29.0% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% | 49.1% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 34.2% | -1.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Legia 43.5 / Zaglebie 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.