Wisla Plock vs Widzew Lodz
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-07-31 · 18:00 CET
DLLLD
WLDLDThe score model made a Wisla Plock win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wisla Plock 1.11 – 0.91 Widzew Lodz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisla Plock win | 39.0% | 30.6% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.5% | 31.0% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Widzew Lodz win | 28.5% | 38.4% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.1% | 41.2% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.8% | 22.4% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.3% | 48.5% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 28.7% | -5.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wisla Plock 26.4 / Widzew Lodz 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.