Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-07-31 · 20:30 CET
LWDLL
WLWLWThe score model made a Jagiellonia win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.47 – 1.71 Jagiellonia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin win | 32.4% | 32.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Jagiellonia win | 42.6% | 40.4% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | 56.2% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.2% | 35.0% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | 59.7% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.7% | 37.9% | +12.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Motor Lublin 35.2 / Jagiellonia 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.