Pogon Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-11-03 · 18:00 CET
WLLLW
DDWWWThe score model makes a Ruch Chorzow win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 59.0% vs 49.9% implied (+9.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pogon Siedlce 1.01 – 1.32 Ruch Chorzow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Siedlce win | 28.0% | 23.7% | +4.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 26.0% | +3.0% |
| Ruch Chorzow win | 43.1% | 50.4% | -7.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.0% | 50.1% | -9.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | 29.5% | -8.9% |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | 52.4% | -5.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 34.6% | -8.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pogon Siedlce 40.5 / Ruch Chorzow 41.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pogon Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzow in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.