Chrobry Glogow vs Arka Gdynia
Division 1, Poland · 2026-11-03 · 18:00 CET
DLLLD
LLLLWThe score model makes an Arka Gdynia win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 79.0% vs 69.9% implied (+9.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chrobry Glogow 1.03 – 1.31 Arka Gdynia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chrobry Glogow win | 28.7% | 33.2% | -4.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 28.7% | +0.2% |
| Arka Gdynia win | 42.4% | 38.2% | +4.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 49.9% | -8.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 30.1% | -9.2% |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 55.1% | -7.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 35.1% | +3.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chrobry Glogow 46.4 / Arka Gdynia 26.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chrobry Glogow vs Arka Gdynia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.