Polonia Warszawa vs Chrobry Glogow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-09-19 · 15:30 CET
DWWWD
DLLLDThe score model made a Polonia Warszawa win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Polonia Warszawa 1.37 – 1.19 Chrobry Glogow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Warszawa win | 39.9% | 48.9% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 26.0% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Chrobry Glogow win | 31.6% | 25.1% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 53.7% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | 33.1% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 56.4% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 37.8% | -8.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Polonia Warszawa 44.8 / Chrobry Glogow 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Polonia Warszawa vs Chrobry Glogow in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.