Legnica vs S. Rzeszow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-09-19 · 19:00 CET
LLLWD
WWWLWThe score model made a Legnica win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Legnica 1.95 – 1.14 S. Rzeszow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legnica win | 55.5% | 55.4% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.1% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| S. Rzeszow win | 21.0% | 21.5% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 62.1% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 41.6% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 61.1% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 42.9% | -8.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Legnica 44.1 / S. Rzeszow 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Legnica vs S. Rzeszow in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.