Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec
Division 1, Poland · 2026-09-19 · 12:30 CET
WWWWL
LLWLDThe score model made a Lechia Gdansk win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 7:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lechia Gdansk 1.97 – 1.46 Stal Mielec.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia Gdansk win | 48.9% | 47.2% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 25.0% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Stal Mielec win | 27.8% | 27.7% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | 60.8% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.8% | 40.3% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | 62.6% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 41.6% | +2.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lechia Gdansk 12.7 / Stal Mielec 28.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.