LKS Lodz vs Chrobry Glogow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-09 · 14:30 CET
LWWDD
WDLWDThe score model made an LKS Lodz win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: LKS Lodz 1.52 – 1.12 Chrobry Glogow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LKS Lodz win | 45.6% | 54.4% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 25.4% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Chrobry Glogow win | 27.1% | 20.1% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 49.1% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | 28.7% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 50.0% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 34.1% | -1.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: LKS Lodz 38.4 / Chrobry Glogow 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.