Stal Mielec vs S. Rzeszow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-08 · 15:30 CET
DWLLD
DDLWWThe score model made a Stal Mielec win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stal Mielec 2.14 – 1.56 S. Rzeszow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Mielec win | 50.4% | 57.9% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 22.2% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| S. Rzeszow win | 27.5% | 19.9% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.4% | 64.1% | +7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.5% | 43.7% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 70.3% | 61.4% | +8.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.9% | 44.3% | +5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stal Mielec 24.7 / S. Rzeszow 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.