Puszcza vs Odra Opole
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-08 · 15:30 CET
LWLLW
LWDDDThe score model made a Puszcza win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Puszcza 1.12 – 0.77 Odra Opole.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puszcza win | 42.6% | 40.9% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 33.3% | 28.9% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Odra Opole win | 24.1% | 30.2% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.6% | 45.3% | -15.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.5% | 25.5% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 37.4% | 51.2% | -13.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 31.6% | -10.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Puszcza 27.2 / Odra Opole 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.