Legnica vs Grodzisk M.
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-08 · 15:30 CET
LWWWD
WDDDWThe score model made a Legnica win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Legnica 1.65 – 1.34 Grodzisk M..
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legnica win | 43.9% | 47.9% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.6% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Grodzisk M. win | 30.3% | 26.5% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 56.6% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.2% | 36.0% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 59.3% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 39.2% | +0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Legnica 41.6 / Grodzisk M. 24.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.