Polonia Warszawa vs Ruch Chorzow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-07 · 20:30 CET
DLWLL
DWWLWThe score model made a Polonia Warszawa win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Polonia Warszawa 1.49 – 1.34 Ruch Chorzow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Warszawa win | 40.0% | 42.2% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.2% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Ruch Chorzow win | 33.2% | 30.6% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 53.5% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 33.0% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 57.8% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 36.9% | -0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Polonia Warszawa 42.4 / Ruch Chorzow 38.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.