Arka Gdynia vs S. Rzeszow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-01 · 15:30 CET
LWLDD
DDLWWThe score model made an Arka Gdynia win the most likely outcome at 66%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 4:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arka Gdynia 2.17 – 0.88 S. Rzeszow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia win | 66.0% | 53.0% | +13.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.8% | 24.3% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| S. Rzeszow win | 13.2% | 22.7% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 57.5% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 36.6% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 57.4% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.5% | 39.2% | +7.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arka Gdynia 20.6 / S. Rzeszow 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.