LKS Lodz vs Polonia Bytom
Division 1, Poland · 2026-07-31 · 18:00 CET
LWWDD
DLDDDThe score model made an LKS Lodz win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: LKS Lodz 1.83 – 1.51 Polonia Bytom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LKS Lodz win | 44.5% | 54.8% | -10.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.3% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Polonia Bytom win | 31.2% | 19.9% | +11.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.7% | 50.9% | +13.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.7% | 30.3% | +12.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.2% | 51.9% | +14.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 34.6% | +2.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: LKS Lodz 38.1 / Polonia Bytom 24.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.