Kristiansund vs Valerenga
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
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LDLWWThe score model makes a Valerenga win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Valerenga win — 50.2% vs 41.6% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kristiansund 1.44 – 1.98 Valerenga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund win | 28.2% | 34.1% | -5.9% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 24.3% | -2.7% |
| Valerenga win | 50.2% | 41.6% | +8.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.7% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kristiansund 38.2 / Valerenga 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kristiansund vs Valerenga in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.