Tromso vs HamKam
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-20 · 17:00 CET
LWDDL
LLWLLThe score model made a Tromso win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tromso 2.05 – 0.98 HamKam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tromso win | 62.1% | 65.1% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.6% | 20.2% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| HamKam win | 17.4% | 14.7% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 60.4% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 39.4% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 54.4% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 41.4% | -10.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tromso 40.7 / HamKam 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tromso vs HamKam in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.