Molde vs Aalesund
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-19 · 18:00 CET
WWLDW
WLWLWThe score model made a Molde win the most likely outcome at 76%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 80%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Molde 3.11 – 1.14 Aalesund.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde win | 76.3% | 69.8% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 13.2% | 16.8% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Aalesund win | 10.5% | 13.4% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.6% | 77.9% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61.3% | 60.7% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | 68.6% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 88.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 58.0% | 55.1% | +3.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Molde 41 / Aalesund 20.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Molde vs Aalesund in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.