Kristiansund vs Rosenborg
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
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WWDWWThe score model made a Rosenborg win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kristiansund 1.17 – 1.73 Rosenborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund win | 25.8% | 17.2% | +8.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 20.1% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Rosenborg win | 50.5% | 62.7% | -12.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 66.5% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.0% | 45.9% | -12.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 60.9% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 46.0% | -10.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kristiansund 37.6 / Rosenborg 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kristiansund vs Rosenborg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.