Sarpsborg 08 vs KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-09-18 · 19:00 CET
DDLWL
LWWWDThe score model made a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 1.60 – 1.02 KFUM Oslo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 win | 51.0% | 59.9% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 22.7% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| KFUM Oslo win | 24.1% | 17.5% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 60.3% | -11.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.7% | 39.7% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 57.9% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 41.3% | -1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sarpsborg 08 41.2 / KFUM Oslo 37.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sarpsborg 08 vs KFUM Oslo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.