Molde vs Sarpsborg 08
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-02 · 15:00
The score model makes a Molde win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Molde 2.09 – 1.09 Sarpsborg 08.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Molde win | 60.6% | 57.5% | +3.1% |
| Draw | 20.1% | 22.5% | -2.5% |
| Sarpsborg 08 win | 19.4% | 20.0% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 65.6% | -3.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.5% | 45.6% | -6.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 63.4% | -5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.9% | 44.8% | +6.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Molde 39.1 / Sarpsborg 08 39.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.