Brann vs Rosenborg
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-02 · 17:15
The score model makes a Brann win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brann 1.97 – 1.28 Rosenborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brann win | 53.7% | 49.5% | +4.2% |
| Draw | 21.3% | 24.4% | -3.0% |
| Rosenborg win | 25.0% | 26.1% | -1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 62.9% | +0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 42.4% | -1.7% |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 63.8% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.3% | 43.3% | +3.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brann 39 / Rosenborg 39.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.