Brann vs Rosenborg
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-02 · 21:15 CET
WWDLL
WWLWWThe score model made a Brann win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brann 1.97 – 1.28 Rosenborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brann win | 53.7% | 48.3% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 24.7% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Rosenborg win | 25.1% | 27.0% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | 62.9% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.9% | 42.4% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 64.0% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.1% | 42.8% | +3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brann 38.9 / Rosenborg 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.