Aalesund vs Tromso
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-02 · 15:00
The score model makes an Tromso win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aalesund 1.15 – 1.77 Tromso.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aalesund win | 25.0% | 26.4% | -1.4% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 25.9% | -3.1% |
| Tromso win | 52.2% | 47.8% | +4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 56.2% | -0.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 35.6% | -2.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 58.9% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 38.4% | -4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aalesund 16.8 / Tromso 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.