Start vs Viking
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-01 · 16:00
The score model makes an Viking win the most likely outcome at 67%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 71%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Start 1.17 – 2.52 Viking.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start win | 16.1% | 16.9% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 17.0% | 20.6% | -3.6% |
| Viking win | 66.9% | 62.5% | +4.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.4% | 62.8% | +8.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.6% | 42.2% | +8.4% |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | 58.2% | +5.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.8% | 43.3% | +3.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Start 13 / Viking 39.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.