Start vs Viking
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-01 · 18:00 CET
WLLWL
WWLWDThe score model made a Viking win the most likely outcome at 67%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Start 1.17 – 2.53 Viking.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start win | 16.0% | 17.5% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.0% | 20.9% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Viking win | 67.0% | 61.6% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.4% | 62.5% | +9.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.6% | 42.0% | +8.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | 58.4% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.7% | 42.8% | +3.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Start 12.9 / Viking 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.